2024 NFL divisional-round playoff picks Patrick Mahomes bests Josh Allen yet again Packers cover vs. 49ers

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The postseason rolls on to the divisional round, and so far we've been cruising. After a strong 32-16 ATS record to cap off the final three weeks of the regular season, I was able to go 5-1 ATS during Super Wild Card Weekend with the only lo s coming via the getting absolutely smoked by the . I was also 4-2 on the moneyline with the other straight-up defeat coming via the as I had the pulling off the upset on top of covering the spread.All in all, it was a great start to the playoffs and I'll look to keep the momentum moving Gavin Lux Jersey in the right direction in the divisional round where the No. 1 seeds now enter the equation.PlayoffsATS: 5-1ML:4-2Regular seasonLocks of the Week ATS: 45-45-1ATS:145-116-11ML:174-98Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC,)As much as I've loved watching this season, his ascent as one of the best rookie quarterbacks we've ever seen is making the Ravens a little underrated in my opinion. He'll now face arguably the toughest test of his young career going against this Baltimore defense. The unit ranks first in the league in fewest points per game Max Muncy Jersey allowed, total sacks and is tied for the most takeaways. The Ravens are also tied for the fewest yards per play allowed, are stellar on third down, and had the second-lowest red zone touchdown rate in the league with opponents finding the end zone on just 40.8% of their trips in the red area. Yes, previous playoff history is a bit of a concern, but I'm willing to ignore that given how well he's been playing this season. He's also been favorable to bettors, covering in five of his last six starts. Jackson may also get star tight end back for this game, adding to their collection of pa s-catching weapons.Projected score: Ravens 30, Texans 20The pick: Ravens -9.5 Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Fox,)I bet against last week and the Packers QB burned me big time. I put more faith in the Cowboys prowe s at home than I should have and we've now corrected that. Love has been fantastic in the second half of the season and his talents were on full display in Dallas last week, making pinpoint pa ses and off-platform throws at every turn. Over the last nine games, he's thrown 21 touchdowns and has just one interception. Sensational. With a quarterback playing that well and catching 10 points, it's a near must-bet. I do believe the Niners, fresh off of a first-round bye, will pull out the win, but it'll be within double digits. Believe it or not, this 49ers defense has been a bit shaky at home this year, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 65.2% of their red zone trips, ranking eighth-worst in the league. While they are still holding opponents to under 20 points at home, they're giving up a full field goal more per game at home than on the road this year as well.Projected score: 49ers 30, Packers 21The pick: Packers +10Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC,)Cards on the table, this is the game I'm least confident in. I'm laying the six-point spread with the Lions, but bettors should proceed with caution as the Bucs were the best road team in the this season, owning an 8-1 ATS record. However, my Ross Stripling Jersey gut says that Detroit rolls in this spot. The Lions got the monkey off of their back, earning their first Los Angeles Dodgers Jersey playoff victory since 1991 and doing so in an emotional back-and-forth against . The Lions defense was stellar in the red zone in that winning effort, not allowing the Rams to score a touchdown on any of their three red zone trips. And there's reason to believe that'll continue here against Tampa Bay after the Bucs were the third-worst red zone offense in the league this year, scoring touchdowns on just 44.9% of their trips. Going on the road in what is likely going to be a bonkers environment at Ford Field and facing a highly motivated team in the Lions is effectively the polar opposite of what the Buccaneers faced this past week at home against Philadelphia, and I believe that will be extremely apparent.Projected score: Lions 30, Buccaneers 17The pick: Lions -6Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS,)I said before the playoffs started that folks are sleeping on the Chiefs and I'm not shying away from that here as they travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Andy Reid's team is getting great play from its defense that effectively shut out the high-flying outside of a lone deep touchdown to in the first half. Offensively, continues to be smart with the football, they are getting a stellar rushing attack from , and the emergence of could be the biggest X factor of the playoffs in the AFC. They continue to do things that are conducive to playoff succe s but aren't exactly being looked at with the same terror as former Chiefs teams, which I believe is a mistake. Buffalo has played well Austin Barnes Jersey down the stretch, but the Bills also let teams hang around a bit. Even though they beat the by double digits, it was a one-po se sion game early in the fourth quarter. Sure, couldn't fully spring Pittsburgh to a win in that setting, but Mahomes is an entirely different animal even if he is playing on the road for the first time in his playoff career. Also, the i sues Buffalo had in the kicking game last week -- a blocked field goal and a mi sed 27-yarder by -- are also on my radar. I think K.C. guts out a close win and advances to the AFC Championship. Projected score: Chiefs 27, Bills 24The pick: Chiefs +2.5