Survival-Readiness

92L in the Atlantic, could be something interesting to watch. Models don't have a good handle on it yet, the GFS takes it out to sea while the Euro takes it towards the Leeward islands. The NHC has it at 50% in the next 48hrs and 70% in the next 5 days.

I'm including a Youtube video on 92L by Redbeard WX, he gives detailed explanations like Levi does on Tidbits. So he's worth a follow!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

[youtube][/youtube]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

...TROPICAL STORM BRET FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 42.2W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 42.2 West. Bret is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is
expected to to continue for the next several days. On the
forecast track, the system should be approaching the Lesser
Antilles late this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Bret could become
a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Kelly

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